Despite overwhelmingly positive polling indicators for the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the Kpandai Constituency, the parliamentary contest ahead of the December 30 rerun remains extremely tight and, for now, “too close to call.”
This assessment was made by Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, while presenting findings of a recent poll on Channel One on Saturday, December 13. His analysis comes ahead of the by-election ordered by the High Court following its November 24 ruling, which annulled the 2024 parliamentary election results in the constituency.
According to Global InfoAnalytics, the ruling government enjoys strong public support in Kpandai — a factor that typically gives the governing party a significant advantage in parliamentary contests.
The poll revealed that 66 percent of respondents believe Ghana is heading in the right direction, while 26 percent disagreed and eight percent expressed no opinion. Presidential approval ratings were similarly high, with 64 percent approving of the President’s performance, 27 percent disapproving and nine percent undecided. On the economic front, 54 percent of respondents said their personal financial situation had improved, 34 percent said it remained unchanged, and 11 percent reported a decline.
Mr. Dankwah acknowledged that these figures provide a strong boost for the NDC candidate.
“The sentiments in Kpandai overall appear to favour the ruling NDC government, in the sense that a majority of voters believe the country is heading in the right direction,” he said.
Summarising the implications of the data, he added: “Broadly, this is a sentiment that should really carry the NDC candidate across the finish line quite easily.”
However, Mr. Dankwah cautioned against drawing premature conclusions, noting that the positive national mood has not translated into a decisive lead for the NDC candidate in the parliamentary race.
“What we’ve seen in the poll when it comes to the parliamentary election is that it is too close to call. The margin is just within the margin of error,” he explained.
The razor-thin margins mean the contest remains highly competitive and unpredictable. Former Kpandai MP Matthew Nyindam, whose election was annulled, has indicated his intention to contest the December 30 rerun despite challenging the High Court’s decision. He maintains that the 2024 parliamentary election was conducted fairly.
With the race finely balanced, voter turnout and campaign mobilisation in the final weeks are expected to play a decisive role.
“For that reason, we have to wait for the final poll to see which direction the election will go,” Mr. Dankwah said, adding that a concluding survey would be necessary to forecast the likely winner.
The Electoral Commission received formal notification from the Clerk of Parliament on December 8, officially declaring the Kpandai seat vacant and clearing the way for the December 30 parliamentary rerun.
